A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
